The
recent announcement by Iranian lawmakers, that a US airstrike on
Syria will result in reprisals on Israel, is the single most
important development in the conflict so far. It is what threatens to
transform the conflict from a localised skirmish into a full-blown
world war, with Russia/China and NATO/Israel as belligerents.
The
statement by Iran should not be taken at face value. It is clearly
just an attempt to make the crisis zero sum. More likely Iran would
increase its supply of military hardware to Syria. I do not see a
sequence of events whereby Iran would strike Israel happening.
So
then, where should we be looking for the flashpoint of WWIII, if it
is to come at all? Of course it must come from non-state actors--by
Islamic fundamentalists with interests aligned with those of Western
powers, or from NATO insurgents. Russia has suggested that the
chemical weapons used in Syria were by rebel fighters, not by the
Assad government, and there are leaked documents from 2006
identifying the UK as the facilitator of these chemical weapons via
Turkey, though the veracity of these documents remains unclear. In
any case, as US Senator Rand Paul has said, it is absurd to conceive
of Bashar al-Assad using chemical weapons, knowing as he does that
such an act would invite a NATO intervention.
Since
2011, the Syrian government has accused 'terrorists'--NATO
elements—of getting involved in the conflict, through the supply of
weapons from Saudi via Qatar and Turkey. This is not new.
In
my own opinion, the most likely Sarajevo moment will come when
Chechen terrorists commit a Boston style bombing attack of Russia at
the Winter Games.
The
media has arguably begun to prime the ideological response of the US
by vilifying Russia as a homophobic reactionary terror state, and
such characterisations are likely to continue.
Remarkably,
a threat to this effect has been levelled by the Saudis at Putin,
claiming that the Chechen elements are under their direct control, in
response to which Putin has threatened a massive retaliation on Saudi
Arabia.
Of
course, it is arguable that such an attack would make the US less
likely
to intervene than more likely in the event of a Chechen bombing in
Russia, since its alliance with the Saudis is ever-weakening.
